An Introduction to Ethiopia

Ethiopia is a nation in East Africa, and is bordered by Somalia in the east, Kenya to the south, Sudan to the west, and Eritrea and Djibouti to the north (CIA). Ethiopia is a landlocked country made up of high plateau terrain with mountains in the center of the country and the Great Rift Valley (CIA).

Ethiopia is Africa's oldest independent nation, and unlike many African countries, managed to largely stay away from colonial dominance. In 1974, a Marxist military junta (the Derg) overthrew Emporer Haile Selassie, and the Derg was overthrown in 1991 by the EPRDF, or Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front, and Ethiopia is now a democratic nation. (CIA).

Ethiopia is home to about 85 million people (PRB), making it the 14th most populaous nation in the world (CIA). These 85 million people speak over seven languages including Amarigna, Oromigna, Tirigna, and Somoligna (CIA). Ethiopians are 43.5 percent Orthodox Christian, 33.9 percent Muslim, 18.6 percent Protestant, and 2.6 traditional religions (CIA).

Although these introductory facts about Ethiopia may be helpful to place Ethiopia into context, these facts are meaningless without understanding a current demographic portrait of Ethiopia and the problems facing Ethiopia's population today. After all, a nation is made up of people, and a useful way to understand people in a different part of the world is through demographic analysis.

Sources: CIA World Factbook. "Ethiopia". https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/et.html. 13 November 2010.

Population Reference Bureau. "World Population Data Sheet". 2010.

Demographic Analysis: Population Size, Makeup, and Future Patterns

To understand Ethiopian life and the needs of Ethiopian people, analyzing some demographic information about Ethiopian people is necessary. In the next few paragraphs, we will explore this demographic information and provide a comparison of that information to the demographic information of the rest of Sub-Saharan Africa and the world, so that we can understand the needs of Ethiopian people.

Population Size: Now and the Future

Today, Ethiopia’s population is about 85 million, putting it at the 2nd most populous country in Africa, and the 14th most populous country in the world (CIA). In 1950 Ethiopia’s population was 18 million (PRB). This means that Ethiopia's population has more than tripled in the past 60 years. By 2015, it is estimated to have 96 million people. Ethiopia’s future population is seen expected to more than double by 2050 (to 174 million), which will move their rank from 14th most populous nation in the world to the 9th most populous (PRB). Ethiopia's rank within Africa is not expected to change, however. Nigeria will remain Africa's most populous country (PRB).

Not only is Ethiopia's population exploding in terms of raw numbers, but factors like percentage of the population under the age of 15 and over the age of 65, total fertility rates, birth and death rates, and the rate of natural increase all reflect this prediction that Ethiopia's total population size will double by 2050. For example, the birth rate in Ethiopia is astronomical. There are 39 births per 1,000 people in Ethiopia every year. This doesn't seem alarming when compared to the birth rate for Africa as whole, which is 37, but is almost double the global birth rate (20), and quadruple the rate for more developed countries (11).

This astronomical birth rate makes sense considering the huge amount of children the average Ethiopian woman has in her lifetime. The average Ethiopian woman will give birth to 5.4 children. Again, Ethiopia's demographic information seems unexceptional when compared to Africa as a whole, which has a total fertility rate of 4.7, but the total fertility rate is high compared to the rest of the world (2.5), and especially compared to more developed countries (1.7). Ethiopians are having a lot of babies compared to the rest of the world, and it seems that this pattern is likely to continue, especially when we examine the percentage of the population under age 15.

44 percent of Ethiopians are under the age of 15. That means that almost every other person living in Ethiopia is very young, and probably haven't hit childbearing ages yet. This group of Ethiopians will hit childbearing ages in the next 15 or 20 years though, and when they do, the population will continue to explode, because young people have more babies than old people. To compare to its region, again, Ethiopia is unexceptional: 41 percent of the total African population is under the age of 15. Globally, however, only 27 percent of the population is under the age of 15, and Ethiopia's percentage of people under the age of 15 doubles that of more developed countries. This means a much greater percentage of Ethiopians will be having babies sooner compared to the rest of the world, and Ethiopia will continue to be a young population compared to the rest of the world.

Finally, Ethiopia's rate of natural increase indicates that the nation's population is in the process of exploding. The rate of natural increase is simply the birth rate minus the death rate. Even though death rates in Ethiopia are high, as we will explain in our next post, the rate of natural increase reflects a nation that is exploding in population compared to the rest of the world. While the rate of natural increase is 1.2 percent globally and only .2 percent for more developed countries, Ethiopia is increasing by 2.7 percent (compared with 2.4 percent for the entirety of Africa).

To conclude this post, we can determine from this demographic information that Ethiopia is a nation that seems to reflect its continent in terms of the rate it is growing and the percentage of youths in its population. Compared to the rest of the world and more developed countries, Ethiopia is a very young, rapidly expanding population, which is cause for concern as we will explain.

Sources: "Ethiopia." Population Reference Bureau. PRB, n.d. Web. 13 Nov 2010, and CIA World Factbook.

Photo Source: http://wanderlustandlipstick.com/wander-tales/ethiopia-not-what-youd-expect/

How Are Ethiopians Faring?

The demographic analysis of Ethiopia is not complete. Thus far, we can conclude that Ethiopia is a very young, highly populous country whose population is rapidly increasing. Although some implications can be drawn from that data alone, it is also important to understand the quality of life of Ethiopians. This can be done though demographic information as well. In the following post, we will attempt to provide a glimpse of the quality of Ethiopian life through demographic information.

Ethiopia's death rate is 12 per 1,000 people a year. This death rate is similar to the rest of Africa's, which is 13 per 1,000 people. The death rate globally is 8, and 10 for more developed countries. Ethiopia's death rate is high compared to that of the rest of the world, but is somewhat similar to that more developed countries. However, MDC's death rate can be explained by how old their population is; 16 percent of the MDC's population is age 65 and older. If there are more old people in a population, then there will be more deaths. However, Ethiopia's percentage of people ages 65 and older is only 3 percent, which is equal to the rest of Africa.

This very low percentage of elderly people in their population makes sense when one considers Ethiopia's average life expectancy. For both sexes, the average life expectancy in Ethiopia is 55. Women live on average to be 57 years old, and men live to be 54. These numbers are exactly the same for Africa as a whole. However, Ethiopia and the rest of Africa aren't doing so well in terms of life expectancy when compared to the rest of the globe. On average, people live to be 69 years old globally, with men living to age 67 and women to age 71. The Ethiopian (and African) life expectancy is 12 years shorter than the global average. More developed countries live even longer, with people living to an average age of 77 (74 for men and 81 for women). Simply by being born in Ethiopia, one lives on average 22 fewer years than people in more developed countries. Therefore, even though more developed countries' death rate is slightly elevated and even comparable to that of Ethiopia, people in more developed countries are dying because they are old. Ethiopians lives are cut short by something else.

Perhaps it is the lack of urbanization that leads to shorter lives for Ethiopians. Only 16 percent of Ethiopians live in urban areas. For the first time in our extended demographic analysis, we see differences between Ethiopia and the rest of Africa. 38 percent of Africans live in urban areas. Compared to the rest of Africa, Ethiopia is falling behind in terms of urbanization. Globally, 50 percent of the world's population is urban, and 75 percent of more developed countries are urban. Therefore, compared to the rest of the world, Ethiopia markedly lags behind in terms of urbanization.

Maybe the reason for shorter lives for Ethiopians is HIV/AIDS. 1.6 percent of men and 2.4 percent of women have HIV or AIDS. For the second time, we see Ethiopia's demographic information differ from the rest of Africa; 3.2 percent of men and 4.8 percent of women have HIV or AIDS for all of Africa. Although these numbers are low compared to global rates (.8 for men, .9 for women) and especially compared to more developed countries (.7 for men, .3 for women), the rates of people infected with HIV or AIDS could be much worse. For example, in Zimbabwe, 12.2 percent of men and 18.7 percent of women have HIV or AIDS. Therefore, HIV/AIDS contributes to the low life expectancy of Ethiopians, but does not nearly come close to explaining why Ethiopians don't live very long.

Perhaps we get closer to the answer when we consider rates of childhood malnutrition. Ethiopia has the tenth highest rates of malnutrition of all countries, with 34.6 percent of children underweight according to the definition prescribed by the World Health Organization. To compare to a more developed country, the United State's percentage of childhood malnutrition is 1.3 percent. There are only four African nations to rank higher than Ethiopia for percentage of malnourished children: Niger, Burundi, Burkina Faso, and Madagascar. Perhaps when we discover that childhood malnutrition is extraordinarily prevalent in Ethiopia, we begin to understand why Ethiopian quality of life is not optimal.

We can learn from this demographic analysis that Ethiopians don't live very long compared to the rest of the globe. Their life expectancy and percentage of elderly people is reflective of the rest Africa. However, the reasons for the low life expectancy of Ethiopians likely differs from that of the rest of Africa. In the next few posts, we will attempt to explore those reasons and uncover some of the major problems in Ethiopia.

Source for all information: Population Reference Bureau World Data Sheet, except where noted. The statistics about underweight children comes from the World Health Organization, and are available here: http://www.globalhealthfacts.org/topic.jsp?i=48#notes

Ethiopia and its Economy

Ethiopia’s institutional environment is among the worst. Ethiopia ranks 78th in having insufficient property rights, 98th in Judicial independence and 101th in private institutions accountability. Ethiopia’s Marxist government carried out a wide range of political, economic and social reform that promised more than they could deliver. The economy was declining and the merchandise experts fell to their lowest. GDP has declined drastically and inflation soared. This has made Ethiopia one of the worst economically dependent countries. Defense expenditures accounted for 40 to 60 percent of the national budge and merchandise exports fell to their lowest since 1974. The countries raging hyperinflation has overtaken almost every nation in the world. And the economy recovery is difficult because of this.

• Ethiopia under the Tigrai Rulers continues to be among the lowest economies in the Global Competiveness Index ranking. This year the country ranked at 121th. As expected the government surplus spending /deficit has become (106th/134) and the countries raging hyperinflation has become unparalleled to almost any nation in the world (131th/134). Ethiopia’s institutional environment rulers is among the worst. The country ranks 78th in having insufficient property rights, 98th in Judicial independence and 101th in private institutions accountability.
  
• Between 1974 and 1975, Ethiopia's Marxist government carried out a wide range of political, economic, and social reforms. Unfortunately, these reforms promised more than they delivered. Gradually, the country's economy deteriorated. By 1990-91 Ethiopia's economy was in a steep decline, from which recovery will be difficult.
  
• During the last year of the military government, GDP declined by 5 percent in real terms, and inflation soared. Defense expenditures accounted for 40 to 60 percent of the national budget. Merchandise exports fell to their lowest level since 1974, and a collapse in international coffee prices (during the 1979-89 period, coffee accounted for an average of 55 percent of total exports) reduced foreign-exchange reserves to an all-time low.

Progress toward Millennium Development Goals:

“Achieve full and productive employment and decent work for all, including women and young people”- In 1995 the employment-to-population ratio was 72.4. In 2000 is was 75.0 and in 2005 it was 79.9. The ratio is rising but not very fast.(UN)

"Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people who suffer from hunger.”- In 1991 the percent of people who were undernourished was 71.0%. In 2001 in was 50.0%, and in 2005 the percentage is 44%. Although Ethiopia is making progress in this section the numbers are still very extreme. (UN)

"Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people whose income is less than $1 a day”- In 1995 the percent of people earning less than $1 per day was 60.5%. In 2000 the percent was 55.6%, and in 2005 it was 39.0%. So Ethiopia is on track for this goal but there is still work that needs to be done. (UN)

Although there has been progress made toward reaching this Millennium Development Goal, it seems unlikely that Ethiopia will reach its goals for ending poverty and hunger before 2015. (UN).

Source: All from Ethiopia Economic Prospects ." The Library of Congress Country Studies; CIA World Factbook. The Library of Congress Country Studies; CIA World Factbook, 10 11 2004, except where indicated. Web. 12 Nov 2010. .

Ethiopia and the Environment

Ethiopia has been noted for their high record percents of health problems and diseases; many of which are due to the low percent of access to safe water and low water quality. An estimated 75 percent of health problems and communicable diseases originate from the environment and only 31 percent of households have access to safe water. Even though there is access to sanitized water, contamination of water supplies by cattle dung and human excreta such as: urine, feces and discharge from the body, is more frequent to come in contact with. High fluoride levels in water are also problems mainly in the Rift Valley regions.

• In Ethiopia, an estimated 75% of the health problems of children and communicable diseases originate from the environment.
  


• Coverage levels for water and sanitation in Ethiopia are among the lowest in the world. According to official figures, 31 percent of households have access to safe water, and 18 percent of households have access to sanitation facilities.
  


• In addition to low coverage levels, water quality is another major problem, as evidenced by frequent outbreaks of water related epidemics in both rural and urban areas. Contamination of water supplies by cattle dung and human excreta (waste matter, such as urine, feces, or sweat, discharged from the body) is frequent. High fluoride levels in water are a particular problem in the Rift Valley regions of the country.

Progress toward Millennium Development Goals:

“Integrate the principles of sustainable development into country policies and programs and reverse the loss of environmental resources”- The percentage of land in Ethiopia that is cover with a rainforest has dropped from 13.8 in 1990 to 11.9 in 2005. Although it is not a dramatic different it is still declining. Less rainforests means less oxygen is being produced. The amount of fuel being used did not change between 2003 and 2007. It stayed at 95%. (UN).

“Halve, by 2015, the proportion of the population without sustainable access to safe drinking water and basic sanitation”- In 1990 the percentage of people with access to improved water supply was 17% and in 2008 it had risen to 38%. Although it is increasing most of the nation still doesn’t have access to a good water supply. (UN).

“Achieve, by 2020, a significant improvement in the lives of at least 100 million slum dwellers”- The percentage of people in a slum area was 95.5% in 1990. It decreased to 79.1 in 2007. Once again the number has dropped but not enough. (UN).

Source: "Water, Environment And Sanitation." Unicef. Unicef, n.d. Web. 12 Nov 2010. http://www.unicef.org/ethiopia/wes.html, and United Nations (UN)

Photo Source: http://www.thp.org/learn_more/on_the_record/working_in_harmony_with_nature

Ethiopia and Education

After 1974, Ethiopia started reformation on education and increasing literacy. The main challenges are intake of teachers, the quality and professionalism of the faculty and staff, as well as the institution structure and school purpose. With all of this work, Ethiopia in higher education has grown from a couple public universities, to 22 universities. Their hope is to bring 10 more universities in the future. The numbers of students into these universities have doubled and will continue to increase again this way again. But this growth within the school system can make financial problems worsen and will decrease the academics.

• Prior to 1974, Ethiopia had an estimated illiteracy rate well above 90% and compared poorly with the rest of Africa in the provision of schools and universities. After the 1974 revolution, emphasis was placed on increasing literacy in rural areas.
  


• Ethiopia is moving very rapidly from an elite towards a mass public sector higher education system. The considerable challenges raised by 'massification' include teaching quality, funding, the need for a more professionalized leadership, staff shortages and institutional structure and mission. The operation of the Ethiopian system, where innovation is highly centralized, also makes local responsiveness difficult.
  


• The country's higher education sector has grown from two public universities just over a decade ago to 22 today with another 10 due to open soon.
  


• The number of students in each university has doubled and is expected to double again. Private higher education has also increased as part of a general liberalization of part of the economy.
  


• The expansion of a university system can lead to financial constraints and deteriorating conditions of study.
  


• The Ethiopian system struggles to achieve more graduates without a noticeable loss of quality. The Higher Education Relevance and Quality Agency (HERQA) was set up to assure the quality of the system.

Progress toward Millennium Development Goals:

“Ensure that, by 2015, children everywhere, boys and girls alike, will be able to complete a full course of primary schooling”- The net enrollment ratio in 1991 was estimated to be 24.0. in 2004 is was 51.2, and in 2008 it was 79.0. due to the financial strain on Ethiopia it is very hard to provide the educational needs for the children. The numbers are going but need to continue to go up. (UN).

Source: "Education-Ethiopia." Encyclopedia of the Nations. Encyclopedia of the Nations, 08 27 2007. Web. 13 Nov 2010, except where indicated.

Photo Source: http://www.concernusa.org/Public/Country.aspx?cid=83

War in Ethiopia

Africa is fighting wars all over the country. Ethiopia is an independent nation. Ethiopia is involved in the Somalia's civil war. Somalia is ruled by the Shabab. The Shabab is a group of people who are radical Islamist rebels. The Shabab has pledged their allegiance to Al Qaeda. Ethiopian solders are fighting right next to US soldiers. America has considered Ethiopia one of their greatest allies in fighting against Islamic terrorist groups. Ethiopia has, alongside the US troops, helped empower a Westerm- backed transitional government. This form of ruling has previously helped keep Somalia under control. Ethiopa continued to fight this battle and it has not been an easy one.

Source: "New York Times." TheNewYorkTimes.com. Ed. Arthur Brisbane. The New York Times, 13 Dec. 2007. Web. 03 Nov. 2010. .

Women in Ethiopia

One of the major problems in Ethiopia is the treatment of women. Although the United Nations defines the promotion of gender equality as one of its millennium development goals, Ethiopia continues to lag behind. For example, there is a vast disparity between the youth literacy rates for males and the youth literacy rates for females in Ethiopia. 62 percent of males aged 15-24 are literate, while only 39 percent of females aged 15-24 are literate (CIA).

Also, female genital cutting is very prevalent in Ethiopia. Almost three quarters (74%) of women have been subjected to female genital cutting (GTZ). Although FGM tends to be most prominent in Muslim countries or countries where older tribal religions are most prevalent, Ethiopia is a largely Christian country (CIA). Therefore, FGM seems to be passed along through ethnic tradition. 6 percent of women have undergone infibulation, which is most prevalent among the Somali, an ethnic group (GTZ). Although the Ethiopian government enacted a statute banning FGM, no one has been convicted under this law (GTZ).

Although the United Nations' Millennium Development Goals tend to focus on education and employment opportunities for women, it seems that deeply-rooted cultural practices such as female genital mutilation should also be an important focus to end gender inequality for good. Gender equality is not measured by schooling and employment alone. Sexual freedom and the ability to enjoy one's sexuality is also unequally distributed among the sexes in Ethiopia.

Progress Toward Millennium Development Goals:

Eliminate gender disparity in primary and secondary education, preferably by 2005, and in all levels of education, no later than 2015 (UN):

"More than 60 per cent of primary school children did not have the chance to continue to grade 5. Girls’ repetition and drop out rates are higher than boys." (Unicef).

"Girls’ participation is lower than boys for all regions except the capital city Addis Ababa. Nationally the female and male enrollment rate in 2002/2003 is 0.7." (Unicef).

So far, Ethiopia has yet to achieve gender equality, especially in rural areas.

Sources: CIA World Factbook,Deutsche Gesellschaft für Technische Zusammenarbeit (GTZ): http://www.gtz.de/en/dokumente/en-fgm-countries-ethiopia.pdf, UNICEF: http://www.unicef.org/ethiopia/children_394.html

Progress Toward Other Millennium Debelopment Goals

Combating HIV/AIDS:

“Halt and begin to reverse, by 2015, the spread of HIV/AIDS”- The percentage of people between the ages of 14-49 that have HIV in 2001 was 2.4% and in 2007 it was 2%. The amount of people that died of AIDS in 2001 was 70,000 and in 2007 it was 67,000. The numbers are going down but not at the rate that they need to be. This is going to take a lot of work to fix this huge problem. (UN).

Maternal Health:

“ Reduce by three quarters, between 1990 and 2015, the maternal mortality ratio”- The maternal ratio in 2008 (per 1000 live births) was 720. This number is very high and needs a lot of attention to drop the number. (UN).

“Achieve, by 2015, universal access to reproductive health”- The percentage of women between the ages of 14-49 that use contraceptives in 1990 was 4.8%. in 2005 the percentage was 14.7%. The amount of women that use contraceptives has more than doubled but there is still a lot of work that needs to be done to provide the care that women need. Not even 50% of women use contraceptives. (UN).

Child Health:

“Reduce by two thirds, between 1990 and 2015, the mortality rate of children under five.”- The mortality rate for children under five (per 1,000 live births) in 1990 was 210. In 2000 it was 148, and in 2008 it was 109. Ethiopia is on the right track to correct the problem. (UN).

Source: United Nations (UN), www.un.org

Photo Source: http://cmlawlibraryblog.classcaster.org/blog/international/2008/05/30/countdown_to_2015_millennium_development_goals

Our Recommendations to the UN

There are five major problems in Ethiopia: poverty, hunger, lack of education, an unsafe environment, and treatment of women. These problems will only be exacerbated by a surge in population growth. Population growth can only be curbed if people have fewer babies. One way for people to have fewer babies is to use birth control. Therefore, one of the first things I would recommend to help rectify problems in Ethiopia is a massive birth control education and distribution campaign. This will be difficult because 84 percent of Ethiopia's population is rural (PRB); reaching rural populations is more difficult. Also, only 14 percent of women use modern methods of birth control (PRB). Because the use of birth control is not very widespread, it may be difficult to integrate the use of birth control into Ethiopian life. However, a massive campaign would certainly help.

The second recommendation we provide is for the UN to provide more schools in rural areas and special literacy programs for girls and young women. The reason for these programs is to help increase literacy and close the literacy gap between men and women in hopes of achieving the Millennium Development Goal of gender equality.

The third recommendation I would make to the UN is a massive distribution of emergency food supplies to the starving in Ethiopia. This distribution should be paired with an education campaign to help implement more effective agriculture techniques to help Ethiopia feed itself. Hunger is one of Ethiopia's most pressing problems; ending hunger is a Millennium Development Goal that could be tackled through both short-term and long-term methods.

Ethiopia in the future

As we discovered in our demographic analysis, the population of Ethiopia is exploding. By 2050, Ethiopia will host a teeming population of 174 million people. The problems Ethiopia will face in 2050 are likely to reflect, and in fact be largely influenced by, this rapid increase in population. Therefore, we believe that Ethiopia will face the following population problems by 2050:

1.) Extreme hunger will be a way of life for a greater number of people. Thomas Malthus theorized that overpopulation is a problem that is taken care of by nature; the more people there are, the less food there is to go around. Famine will eradicate the extra members of the population. Ethiopia already has enourmous problems feeding its hungry; a doubled population will only exacerbate this problem.

2.) Extreme poverty will affect a much great number of Ethiopians. Unless economic opportunities expand soon, a greater proportion of Ethiopians will live in abject poverty, simply because more people are being brought into the world than there are economic opportunities.

3.) Distributing health care will be very difficult. With a greater number of people, producing, paying for, and distributing health care will be much more difficult.

4.) Universal education will become much more difficult to achieve. It's a game of numbers. The more people a population has, the more difficult it is to build the required number of schools, pay the necessary number of teachers, and enforce school attendance, especially for rural children.

5.) War. According to Vaclav Smil, young populations with little economic opportunity are much more likely to engage in violence and fundamentalism than older populations with lots of economic opportunity (618). Ethiopia has a history of conflict with Somalia and especially Eritrea over border disputes. With a young population with nowhere to go, these conflicts are likely to flare up and decrease the quality of life for the entire Ethiopian population.

Smil, Vaclav. "The Next 50 Years: Unfolding Trends". Population and Development Review, 2005. Pgs 605-643.

Photo source:http://gbgm-umc.org/umcor/emergency/ethiopia.cfm